THE POWER FACTOR
All-India generation was up by 8% yoy in June 2012, driven by strong growth across coal and nuclear generation, but partially offset by decline in gas- and hydro-based generation. While coal generation increased 17% and nuclear power reported a growth of 9%, gas and hydro power declined 21% and 5%, respectively. Industry PLFs declined significantly yoy to 51% due to fuel shortages. Coal-supply position deteriorated—32 out of 89 plants face sub-critical inventory levels (vs. 27 last year). While peak deficits declined mom, base deficits increased significantly leading to higher merchant rates. Capacity addition in June 2012 was 83% of the targeted 2,862MW with 2,361MW added. (All numbers pertain to June 2012 with a yoy comparison, unless specified)
GENERATION
Coal generation was up 16.8% on capacity addition while nuclear generation was up 8.8%. Gas generation was down 21% (due to declining output from the KG basin) and hydro was down 5.5% primarily on a higher base. Consequently, overall generation for the month was up 8.1%.
COMPANY WISE BREAK-UP
NTPC’s total generation increased 9% driven by 8.9% growth in coal generation and 10.2% growth in its gas-based plants (mainly due to lower yoy base). Tata Power reported 58.9% growth in generation, fuelled by the commissioning of Mundra’s first 800-MW unit. Adani’s and JSW’s strong generation growth was driven by capacity additions. Companies with gas-based plants, such as GMR and GVK, continued to see declines on gas supply constraints.
PLFs (Plant Load Factor)
Overall PLFs declined significantly to 51% (55% last year). While PLFs at coal-based plants declined to 65.3% from 67.2% yoy, as capacity additions outpaced increase in coal production, gas-based PLFs declined to 45% from 61% due to declining output from the KG basin. Hydro PLFs declined to 39% vs. 43% yoy. However, nuclear PLFs showed improvement, growing to 78% from 72%. While peak deficit declined to 5.8% vs. 8.1% mom, base deficit increased to 8.6% vs. 7.5% mom leading to 22.6% increase in merchant rate on a monthly basis to Rs4.2/unit.
COAL PRODUCTION
Coal-supply position deteriorated with 32 out of 89 plants facing sub-critical inventory levels (vs. 27 plants in June 2011 and 29 in May 2012). International coal prices at US$85.5 are down 26% yoy, but on a landed costs basis, they are down ~8% due to rupee depreciation. Natural gas production continued its declining trend with May 2012 output down to 119mmscmd, an 11% fall yoy.
CAPACITY
In June, capacity addition was of 2,361MW vs. the monthly target of 2,861MW. YTD, the total addition was 5,463MW against the target of 3,807MW. In the 11th Plan (2007-2012), the industry achieved 86% of its targeted capacity, adding approximately 67.5GW (including approximately 17GW renewable) vs. the targeted 78GW. Currently, all-India installed capacity is about 205.3GW.
Source: CERC, reports
All-India generation was up by 8% yoy in June 2012, driven by strong growth across coal and nuclear generation, but partially offset by decline in gas- and hydro-based generation. While coal generation increased 17% and nuclear power reported a growth of 9%, gas and hydro power declined 21% and 5%, respectively. Industry PLFs declined significantly yoy to 51% due to fuel shortages. Coal-supply position deteriorated—32 out of 89 plants face sub-critical inventory levels (vs. 27 last year). While peak deficits declined mom, base deficits increased significantly leading to higher merchant rates. Capacity addition in June 2012 was 83% of the targeted 2,862MW with 2,361MW added. (All numbers pertain to June 2012 with a yoy comparison, unless specified)
GENERATION
Coal generation was up 16.8% on capacity addition while nuclear generation was up 8.8%. Gas generation was down 21% (due to declining output from the KG basin) and hydro was down 5.5% primarily on a higher base. Consequently, overall generation for the month was up 8.1%.
COMPANY WISE BREAK-UP
NTPC’s total generation increased 9% driven by 8.9% growth in coal generation and 10.2% growth in its gas-based plants (mainly due to lower yoy base). Tata Power reported 58.9% growth in generation, fuelled by the commissioning of Mundra’s first 800-MW unit. Adani’s and JSW’s strong generation growth was driven by capacity additions. Companies with gas-based plants, such as GMR and GVK, continued to see declines on gas supply constraints.
PLFs (Plant Load Factor)
Overall PLFs declined significantly to 51% (55% last year). While PLFs at coal-based plants declined to 65.3% from 67.2% yoy, as capacity additions outpaced increase in coal production, gas-based PLFs declined to 45% from 61% due to declining output from the KG basin. Hydro PLFs declined to 39% vs. 43% yoy. However, nuclear PLFs showed improvement, growing to 78% from 72%. While peak deficit declined to 5.8% vs. 8.1% mom, base deficit increased to 8.6% vs. 7.5% mom leading to 22.6% increase in merchant rate on a monthly basis to Rs4.2/unit.
COAL PRODUCTION
Coal-supply position deteriorated with 32 out of 89 plants facing sub-critical inventory levels (vs. 27 plants in June 2011 and 29 in May 2012). International coal prices at US$85.5 are down 26% yoy, but on a landed costs basis, they are down ~8% due to rupee depreciation. Natural gas production continued its declining trend with May 2012 output down to 119mmscmd, an 11% fall yoy.
CAPACITY
In June, capacity addition was of 2,361MW vs. the monthly target of 2,861MW. YTD, the total addition was 5,463MW against the target of 3,807MW. In the 11th Plan (2007-2012), the industry achieved 86% of its targeted capacity, adding approximately 67.5GW (including approximately 17GW renewable) vs. the targeted 78GW. Currently, all-India installed capacity is about 205.3GW.
Source: CERC, reports
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